Monthly Archives: July 2016

Down the Extreme Stretch with Mike Mills

Extreme Race Day at Canterbury Park is one of the biggest draws of the meet.  With the perfect weather conditions looming for Saturday, it should be an extremely busy day.  Let’s look to @M_Mills21 to navigate the thoroughbreds through the camels and zonkeys.  Take it away Mike!

Race 1:  First of two quarter horse sprints on Extreme Race Day.  This first is 220 yards and is basically a starting gate challenge.  It won’t take long to reach the finish line.  The outside post has the best chance at this one, Crusin the Lake, with the connections of leading trainer Jason Olmstead and Brayan Velazquez.  Seasoned quarter horse rider Stormy Smith gets aboard Into the Fray and can get this horse out quickly.  In a race like this, you have to stick to the “safe” gates.  A Valiant Cartel out of Corona Cartel gets the final nod in this one.

Race 2:  The Dash in a Flash Stakes: Don’t blink after the gates open – the race should be over in about 10 seconds.  110 yards is anothergate work.  Iowas Texas Tlp has been a really nice horse at Canterbury Park this summer and has few gate issues.  My favorite quarter horse on the grounds is Rickey Separate, another horse that avoids issues at the start, lost the Skip Zimmerman Stakes by a neck last out.  Sudden Separation should get the speed on the outside without interference.

Race 3:  The first thoroughbred race on extreme day is a Maiden Special Weight for trainers who have not won a race at the meet. Dusty Princess is lightly raced and has put together a couple nice efforts, has a nice tracking style that should give jockey Larren Delorme options, Chuck Turco gets his first win, Poverty Flats has run well in two of her past three and the one bad effort was off an extended break, could be the controlling speed in a race lacking speed. When the trainer is struggling why not rely on the top jock? Alex Canchari rides More Mona More for Ron Thompson, although she hasn’t hit the board yet this year but her speed figures are competitive with this bunch, could make some late noise.

Race 4: Trill Point cuts back while taking a slight dip in class, was a part of a quick pace last out and held well to finish 4th, will have to use that speed from the hedge and should take them along way today. Joe Dunk In broke his maiden this spring in Arizona and we have to assume the last race was a prep for today, should sit a nice trip for expert connections. Northampton Kid finally broke thru in his last and takes the logical next step versus winners, horses like this who often take time to break their maiden seem to have a big wakeup call when they do finally win, but Canchari jumps ship to Bellamy Run, hhmmm??

Race 5: This is a quirky 2 furlong race for Thoroughbreds, World Famous Sam T seems to be a horse that fits this race, he is a great breaker and plays catch me if you can, rider Scott Bethke rides the quarter horses too so we know he can get them out of the gate which is ultra crucial here today. Five Seasons may be the quickest of them all but with a tough rail post draw he must break perfect and avoid trouble on the inside, strictly the one to beat. Wildcat Moon is the defending champion in this race from last year, he goes turf to dirt and should be right there when the dust settles.

Race 6: “Battle of the surfaces” horses running on the dirt and turf at the same time. Callingahardten runs on the turf, he has 3 wins from 8 starts on the Canterbury turf and has hit the board 6 of 8 times,  was beaten last out by a wire to wire winner, gets a good set up today and should make amends for the rough trip last out. Gavar runs on the dirt, his speed will put him in the mix all the way around, Canchari will have to keep his eye on the race going on to his inside while keeping an eye on what’s behind him on the mail track.  Megastar didn’t run well last out but with a 4 for 5 record ITM on Canterbury turf we have to assume he needed that start off the bench, he should be flying late at a monster price.

Race 7: Alternative Use ran a very nice when third in his turf debut last out, although he did finish behind a couple of today’s rivals in that race he was making up ground in a race that went to a wire to wire winner, upset potential. Malacrianza comes in from Lone Star and drops into the claiming ranks, but at 1 for 16 it’s hard to trust him on the win end. Moon Track broke his maiden last out at Arlington Park, his stalking style fits this race well with some many deep closers and should be able to get the jump on them when the real running starts.

Race 8: Minnesota Outlaw drops to the bottom after a couple poor efforts at the MSW level, the last time he was in versus claimers he was narrowly beaten a neck, tough. Justcallmecharlie drops into the claiming ranks for the first time, he goes turf to dirt and cuts back to sprint distance, with those route races under his belt he should be plenty fit to come running at the end. The Great Casby ran well first off the layoff at this level last out, should be more fit for this run and good outside attack post should give Delorme options.

Race 9: Sir Searsucker is turf marathon specialist, he has hit the board in all 4 tries at today’s distance and runs second off the layoff after spending the winter down in Arizona. P Millers Clock runs for Villafranco who had success at Remington last fall with this runner winning twice on the grass, must overcome the hurdle of trying the extended turf marathon distance for the first time. Local Reason has tried the longer turf distance a couple of times with some success, he has no early foot, he will sit back and make his late run.

 

Race 10: Bail Out Tino made a mild rally last out, should be more fit this time for Diodoro, expect more speed with the second time blinkers. The second Diodoro runner Chart Room takes a big drop in class and goes from turf to dirt, should be plenty fit but 0 for 17 is tough take at a short number. Lootn Shootn tried MSW foes in his career debut, now runs against claimers in his second start, should be closer to today’s pace after chasing fast fractions on turf.

Down the Stretch with Mike Mills

Another solid card at Canterbury Park this weekend.  On Sunday, we start the day with six quarter horse races including the QH Derby, the Northlands Futurity and Minnesota Stallion Breeders stakes. But let’s get to Saturday first!  Last weekend, we watched Alex Canchari pick up his 500 win.  This weekend, we wait for Orlando Mojica to get his 2,000 win.  He is only three away as of today.

Happy to have Mike Mills back providing analysis for One Lucky Mudder.  Give him a follow @M_Mills21.

Race 1:  Two-year old Quarter Horse will go 300 yards in the Saturday opener at Canterbury Park.  Top QH jockey Nik Goodwin draws the outside gate in both races but I’m heading to the middle with the 5 horse Ada Lida with leading trainer Jason Olmstead and the red-hot rider Brayan Velazquez. The pedigree on the 3 shows speed, La Mos Pyc and Nik Goodwin can stay clear on the 9 with Promise Me Bob.

Race 2: $15,000 Optional Claiming race for Race 2 and I’m sticking with the Olmstead/Velazquez on the 4 Ms Dynasty.  Three starts this year and twice in the winner’s circle.  Nik Goodwin gets the outside post in this one too on the very impressive Lota James.  This horse also has two winners in three starts.  Big Bad Ivory has a career of hitting the board.  Six career starts and three times in the money.  The distance should fit perfect with the pedigree.

Race 3:  Coastal Breeze was in a tight spot when going long off the layoff, cuts back today and should plenty fit coming from just off the pace, Minnesota bred Chris Mars takes a drop in class and faces open company for the first time at Canterbury, he looks to be the quickest of the bunch and if he gets away from them early he will tough to catch late. Kill Shot runs second of the layoff and from this outside post should sit a great trip behind the speed, top connections always seem to fire.

Race 4: Ms. Bubbette never seemed comfortable in her last when chasing a wire to wire winner, Mojica takes the call today and with some different tactics she should be right there all the way around.  Classy Teacher didn’t much running last time out but she has run some nice turf races in the past, sharp turf connections will have her save all the ground and make one run, Kenna Mae is perfect over the turf facing Minnesota breds, she tries open company and with her natural speed she will take them as far as she can. Speed threat.

Race 5: Da Kleinen Shatzi faced winners for the first time last out and ran a respectable third, inside post will force Butler to get her in the race early today but that style suits her well and the slight cutback will work in her favor, Adorkable hasn’t faced this kind of company before, last year she was knocking at the door in the allowance ranks, a couple dull efforts to start the year and the logical drop is taken but at 1 for 23 is the drop coming to late? Renamed beaten chalk last out at the level gets a great attack post today, just like our top selection she should be involved from the start and should appreciate the cut back.

Race 6: Many runners return from the June 18 race in which Bourbonnais won clear, Solamente was trapped down on the rain and never got to do much running until it was too late, with a better trip today he can make amends for that effort, Streaking Schiller tried turf for the first time last out, he was near a pace that collapsed after he made a brief bid towards the lead, if Keith can get him to relax early he should have more punch in the stretch, Moecaro ran into that collapsing pace on June 18 and got in some trouble in the stretch, with a clean trip he should be making noise late.

Race 7: Daddy Devine has been facing tougher and not showing much, todays drop could wake him up and with a pace pressing style he should have every chance to make his presence felt in the lane, Startingold should appreciate the extra distance today, late running sprinters aren’t always the best at a route distance but he is proven at the distance with three wins, Deja I’Etoile runs third off the layoff after getting bumped at the break and losing all chance last out, another with a pace pressing style that will help in a field without much speed signed on.

Race 8: G Road returns the turf where he broke his maiden last summer, he hasn’t shown much of last but the slight drop in class should help with the turf wake up call, Leavinglosangeles is the speed of the speed, he has very consistent speed figures and made a good account of himself in his only other try on the lawn, Qahr is one that doesn’t win very often but he does show up with some nice efforts including a third place finish over slightly tougher last time out, could be the bomb in the exotics.

Race 9: Toskiko takes a class drop into the claiming ranks after facing the ultra tough Honey Sax Appeal last out, she has a nice stalking style and check out that workout on July 3rd! Hide the Hooch cuts back to a distance she has had success at in the past, turf to dirt is always a good angle with lightly raced horses, nice to see Paul Nolan back in Shakopee, Wicked Attitude is a speedy filly that also comes out of the ‘Honey race, she got shut off last time out and never recovered, could take them a long way with a better outside trip.